Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Ebbing of Tide of Support

At one time, the Republican party was the party that black people stuck with. However, beginning in the 1930's, blacks went over to the Democrats. This continued until today, when blacks overwhelmingly support the Democrats - by over 90%.

However, I see this as the high tide of support.

I see several issues where African Americans will start to re-think their positions on voting, within the next 20 years, and which means they will be more evenly-split between the two parties. Here are some issues that I can see an African-Americans change their position:

  • Vouchers. The Democrats are beholden to the NEA, more than anything else. Education is the Democrat's Holy Grail. Well, "education" - meaning a monopoly of the public school system. Vouchers take kids out of the failing public school system and put them in private schools. And where are the schools failing the most? Inner cities. Which is why African Americans favor vouchers. And so do Republicans, if they take this mantle up again.
  • Immigration Reform. The jobs that are available to many unskilled African-Americans, who are not college bound, are taken up by illegal Mexican immigrants. Which is making young African-Americans quite angry. So much so, there are now fights between the two groups. Now, which party stands for immigation reform? The Republican one. The word needs to be taken out.
  • Traditional values. Most Democrats not only do not go to church, but they actually hate religion. Republicans like religion, and often go to church. The one group of Democrat supporters who do go to church are African-Americans. Republicans need to amplify the Democratic hatred of religion, to weaken the hold of Democrats on this group (only 2% of Americans will be alienated, but almost all those people, anti-Christian bigots, do not vote for any Republican under any circumstance anyway).

Now, the Democrats do offer affirmative action. But that is also a two-edged sword. It only works when you are the favored group. Since Hispanics are now becoming America's favorite minority, they stand to benefit from it. Especially against other minority groups. Since this is the one thing that really hold African-Americans to the Democrats, if they see the sword used against them, they might think twice.

Also, the Democrats are the party of the inner city. But, many an inner city is undergoing gentrification. Meaning rich liberal whites are kicking blacks out of their traditional neighborhoods. So blacks are going into the suburbs, where often, there is no dominant ethnic groups. Da Hood is what defines an African-American male as a "brother" more than anything else. Being in the suburbs will force a brother to act less like a brother and more like an American. And so think, too. And when a group loses it's identity and becomes American, it tends more to vote Republican. Look at the old "ethnic Democrats" - the Poles, the Italians, and especially the Irish. Today, they vote either way, often Republican. And if they have married out of their ethnic groups - which is more likely as time goes along - they lose this identity and get an American identity.

The Republican party is the party of Americans. It always has been. The Democrats, at the same time, has represented everyone else (excepting one or two groups, at whatever point in history). My study of American history has suggested that this is the case. When American ethnics vote a majority Democrat, the Republicans lose in a landslide.

One other thing, too. While Democrats were the ones who lead the civil rights battles of (almost two) generations ago, that is now history. To keep support, a politician must be able to answer the question "what have you done for me lately?" Just like Roosevelt advanced the agenda of union members three generations ago, Democrats have taken on positions that oppose many of their ideals, and the Roosevelt stories are pretty much ancient-history, so rank-and-file union members have a high percentage of Republican voters. Likewise, the civil rights stories of the 1950's and 1960's will not resonate with many black children anymore - especially when there is not a lot of discrimination - and they will lose interests when their grandparents and great-grandparents talk enthusiastically about this time.

Democrats are now being taken over by spoiled rotten white brats. Who are shoving minorities out of the spotlight - when once they had a prominent place in the spotlight. A feeling on non-inclusion will make African-Americans think about their voting pattenrs, and will be open up to new ideas. Meaning many will look to the Republicans.

Now, Republicans do not really need to change anything - continue to stick to it's core issues. If you change positions on issues, for no reason whatsover (except votes) everyone knows you are a phony, and you will actually lose support. Thus, supporting affirmitive action or gun control will get the party nowhere, and will get us to lose support. People often vote for the party that best represents it's interests and ideals. If we Republicans stick to these issues - and do not change our position - we will start to pick up members of a key Democrat consitutiency.

Now, I am a white person living in an exurb way away from da hood. So I have little contact with black culture. But I am an observer of human events, and I see that this is very much a possibility down the road.